Bayer’s Kidney Drug Shows Promise In Fighting Common Heart Failure

In a recent study, Bayer AG's kidney drug Kerendia demonstrated its ability to prevent complications associated with a common type of heart failure, marking a significant win for the company's pharmaceutical division amidst various challenges. The study showed that Kerendia reduced the relative risk of death and severe events related to this form of heart failure—where heart pumping ability is only mildly impaired—by 16%. The late-stage trial, involving 6,000 participants, compared Kerendia to a placebo and focused on a condition affecting roughly 30 million people globally, for which new treatment options are scarce.

As Bayer's pharmaceutical division navigates declining revenues from its leading blood thinner Xarelto and eye medication Eylea—both facing competition from generic alternatives—the company is looking for growth opportunities. Despite disappointing sales of Kerendia for kidney disease, Bayer is optimistic about its potential in treating heart failure, according to Stefan Oelrich, head of the pharmaceutical division, who shared this outlook with investors earlier this year.

In January 2023, Bayer projected that annual sales of Kerendia could surpass €3 billion ($3.32 billion). However, the company has since revised this target. Analysts now estimate the drug’s peak sales could reach €2.22 billion by 2033, according to Bloomberg data. Bayer had reported in early August that Kerendia achieved the study’s objectives, with detailed results unveiled at the European Society of Cardiology Congress in London and published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

The data slightly outperformed expectations from Markus Manns, a portfolio manager at Union Investment, a Bayer shareholder. Manns had anticipated an efficacy of around 15% for Kerendia, suggesting that the drug could still achieve peak annual sales between €2 billion and €3 billion. Bayer has announced plans to seek regulatory approval for Kerendia in the context of heart failure, though it has not specified a timeline for this process.